Why Are Donor Numbers Falling?

On the surface, the latest fundraising data suggests a sector in recovery. Overall giving grew an estimated 5.0% in 2025, the highest growth rate in five years, according to the Fundraising Effectiveness Project Q4 2025 report. For leadership teams focused only on the bottom line, this looks like a clear win.

Look closer and the picture is more uneven. That 5.0% was weighted heavily toward the end of the year, per the FEP Q4 2025 report. Giving was up 3.7% through Q3, according to the FEP Q4 2025 report, meaning an exceptionally strong Q4 lifted the full-year figure.

Meanwhile, the number of donors fell an estimated 3.6% in the FEP Q4 2025 dataset, extending a decline that began in 2021 into its fifth consecutive year.

This is the "Dollars Up, Donors Down" paradox. Large gifts can hide a shrinking donor base. We must ask if the 5.0% growth in the FEP data is a sustainable recovery or a small group of large gifts hiding a deeper erosion of the donor base.

The "Hollowed-Out" Success Story

Use this diagram with the Your Mid-Level Donor Playbook (toolkit).

A 5.0% jump in total giving is a "hollowed-out" success. It breaks a multi-year revenue slump, but the growth is not fueled by a broad movement of supporters. According to the FEP Q4 2025 report, growth was driven almost entirely by Major and Supersize donors.

This surge was likely aided by record stock market performance in Q4, which encourages large donors to give appreciated assets while values are high.

The result is a sector that looks healthy at the top while becoming exposed underneath. When revenue is tied to a small number of relationships sensitive to market conditions, top-line growth can be deceptive.

The Major Donor Dependency Trap

Revenue concentration at the top of the pyramid is now a structural risk. The FEP Q4 2025 dataset, covering 7. 8 million donors and $13.

2 billion in giving across 15,102 organizations, shows growth driven by segments that already give the most. In economic downturns, large donors historically pull back; overreliance on this segment undermines resilience. Start by calculating how much of your income comes from your largest donors.

"Overall giving increased by 5.0%, but that growth is being carried by a smaller group of major donors while the total number of donors continues to decline. The result is a sector that can look healthy at the top line while becoming more exposed underneath." , FEP Q4 2025 Strategic Insights

This calls for a steady effort to broaden participation while deepening existing relationships. For smaller organizations, this means staying close to the community with visible ways to take part. For larger organizations, it requires balancing major donor revenue with engagement that keeps a wider base active. We recommend giving supporters a clear way to volunteer, attend a briefing or make a first gift.

The First-Time Donor Conversion Problem

Retention in the FEP Q4 2025 data tells a split story. Overall retention edged up from 43.1% to 43.3% in the FEP Q4 2025 report, but new donor retention remained flat or slightly negative. FEP identifies this as the sector's most consequential problem: converting a first gift into a second.

The sector retains the donors it already knows but fails to connect with those it has just met. Acquisition campaigns without a deliberate second-gift strategy are effectively renting donors. Start by mapping the thank-you, update and next invitation in a donor journey that converts.

The Donor Base Decline Is Slowing, Not Reversing

There is one encouraging signal. The 3.6% decline in donor counts, according to FEP Q4 2025, is the fifth year of a slide, but the rate of decline has slowed since 2022. This is an inflection point rather than a recovery, and it is the most important trend to watch in 2026.

The slowdown may reflect better donor care or simply a smaller pool of donors left to lose. Organizations that hold on to current donors will be in a stronger position than those waiting for acquisition to refill the funnel.

The Demographic Disconnect

The sector faces a significant demographic disconnect. The average age of a repeat donor is in the mid-60s. For decades, Baby Boomer fundraising tactics like traditional direct mail have been the gold standard. These methods are not resonating with Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z at the same rate.

As we approach a looming wealth transfer estimated by Cerulli Associates at $84 trillion through 2045, reaching younger generations is mandatory. These segments represent the future of philanthropy. If we do not adapt to their preference for digital engagement, we risk a permanent disconnect. Our guide to thinking like an SEO marketer is a practical starting point for meeting younger donors where they are.

Mid-Level Donors Are Still the Best Growth Opportunity

FEP Q4 2025 insights highlight mid-level donors as a reliable segment for long-term engagement. These donors stay involved more consistently than lower-level givers and are more likely to deepen their participation over time.

For smaller organizations, engagement happens through direct contact and shared context. For larger organizations, it requires intentional pathways that create a sense of community at scale, connecting donors to the work and to each other. Start by inviting mid-level donors to a programme briefing with time for their questions.

The Monthly Giving Antidote

Use this diagram with the Your Mid-Level Donor Playbook (toolkit).

Recurring giving is the best defense against flat retention. While one-time retention stagnates, research compiled by Network for Good and NextAfter's monthly giving benchmark study shows that monthly supporters can reach retention rates of 80% to 90%. That doubles the sector average.

To act on the FEP Q4 2025 data, shift from transactions to loyalty. Use the Fundraising Fitness Test provided by AFP and FEP to see how your organization compares to these trends.

Action tips for your strategy

Beyond the Numbers

The landscape is uneven, but declining donor participation does not mean people have stopped caring. For your team, the practical question is what prevents interested supporters from making or repeating a gift.

The Dollars Up, Donors Down trend is a wake-up call to measure success by the health of the community, not just the spreadsheet. Before your next campaign, ask if you are mining a donor base for transactions or cultivating a community that will sustain your mission for decades.

Put this into practice

Choose these tasks as a starting assignment for your team. The roles and review timing below are suggested working arrangements, not benchmarks.

1. Report donors as well as dollars

Suggested owner: Data lead. Compare donor counts and receipts over matching periods using consistent definitions. Separate first-time and repeat donors and show how much income depends on the largest relationships.

2. Inspect first-gift follow-up

Suggested owner: Donor services lead. Review a sample of recent donor records from gift to acknowledgement and later update. Produce an assigned gap list for missing welcomes, unanswered replies and unfulfilled promises.

3. Resource one retention repair

Suggested owner: Development director. Choose the most visible gap and assign the fix before expanding acquisition. Record the staff time, intended change and donor group so the team can review a specific intervention.

Check progress: At a monthly review, examine donor counts, subsequent gifts and follow-up completion alongside receipts. Use matching donor groups and periods rather than interpreting revenue growth as proof of retention.

Your homework

Rising headline giving can hide a shrinking donor base and flat new donor retention. Because revenue has become heavily concentrated among a small tier of major givers, organisations that rely on strong market conditions face substantial risk during economic shifts.

Building genuine resilience requires leadership teams to look beyond top-line receipts, address the conversion drop after a first gift, and build dependable revenue through monthly and mid-level supporters.

Before you move on to anything else, complete these three tasks:

1. Calculate your organisation's donor counts and total receipts across the past two years by this Friday to produce a single-page summary report that isolates new donor retention from repeat donors.

2. Audit a sample of twenty recent first gift records by next Wednesday to produce a written gap list of delayed acknowledgements, missing welcome messages, and unfulfilled commitments.

3. Schedule a sixty-minute team meeting by next Friday to select one retention repair from your gap list and record an action document that assigns staff hours, a target donor group. And an updated monthly giving follow-up process.